Oscars 2019 – Predictions from the CineSocial UK team

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Nadine, Claire and Jason have been ‘hard at it’ during the past 12 months, cramming in as many movie screenings as they can handle. But who do we think will win at Sunday’s Oscars ceremony? Read on for our preferred winners and, if we think Oscar will disagree, who else could walk away with the most prized 13.5 inches of gold plated wonder. Our reviews are highlighted.

Best Picture

Black Panther
BlackKklansman
Bohemian Rhapsody
The Favourite
Green Book
Roma
A Star is Born
Vice

Should win: A Star is Born (Nadine), The Favourite (Jason), BlackKklansman (Claire)
Will win: The Favourite (Nadine), Roma (Jason, Claire)

Nadine: I will not be surprised if Bohemian Rhapsody wins big at the Academy Awards at this stage, because it’s won everything else so far. A Star Is Born is the better film in every aspect in my opinion. Everything from script, the acting, the music, the editing, the cinematography, is faultless, you’d think Bradley Cooper has been directing for years.

Claire: The Favourite to win…or Roma, if Hollywood and Netflix end their feud!

Jason: Roma will win. Oscar is all about diversity this year and, given a certain President’s anti-Mexican speech, I predict Roma, about the daily toil of a Mexican in the 70’s, will win the top awards. It’s as dull as ditch water and the ‘tricksy’ camerawork soon palls. But hey, by winning it ‘might’ send a message to POTUS to NOT BUILD THE WALL!

Best Director

Spike Lee – BlackKklansman
Pawel Pawlikowski – Cold War
Yorgos Lanthimos – The Favourite
Alfonso Cuarón – Roma
Adam McKay – Vice

Should win: Alfonso Cuarón (Nadine), Spike Lee (Jason), Yorgos Lanthimos (Claire)
Will win: Alfonso Cuarón (Nadine, Jason)

Nadine: Roma is Cuarón’s greatest feat. His stunning, intimate storytelling is exactly what the Academy loves when it comes to choosing their Best Director.

Claire: Possibly Cuaron. Again, if the feud is over!

Jason: See above about Roma. I find this a hard one to call. I loved both BlackKklansman and The Favourite and both are stunning films, but I think Spike Lee showed a smidgen more directorial flourish than Lanthiamos. JUST! And he made such a cool film!

Best Actor in a Leading Role

Christian Bale – Vice
Bradley Cooper – A Star Is Born
Willem Dafoe – At Eternity’s Gate
Rami Malek – Bohemian Rhapsody
Viggo Mortensen – Green Book

Should win: Bradley Cooper (Nadine), Viggo Mortensen (Jason), Rami Malek (Claire)
Will win: Rami Malek (Nadine, Jason, Claire)

Nadine: The real winner of Best Actor should be Mahershala Ali, but he’s in the wrong category. With that in mind Cooper should win. This is his third nomination in Acting categories but by far the most deserving, for his emotionally deep portrayal of the trouble Jackson Maine.

Jason: Given his BAFTA and Golden Globe wins, Rami Malek will definitely win. I haven’t seen Bohemian Rhapsody but I know people who have and they tell me he is a force of nature in this movie. Preferably, I’d give it to Mortensen, who is magic in Green Book.

Best Actress in a Leading Role

Yalitza Aparicio – Roma
Glenn Close – The Wife
Olivia Colman – The Favourite
Lady Gaga – A Star Is Born
Melissa McCarthy – Can You Ever Forgive Me

Should win: Lady Gaga (Nadine), Olivia Colman (Jason), Glenn Close (Claire)
Will win: Olivia Coleman (Nadine, Claire), Glenn Close (Jason)

Nadine: This is going to be the toughest category, especially with Glenn Close getting a lot of love this award season. Having not seen The Wife yet I can’t judge, so Gaga is my favourite simply for the last 10 minutes of A Star Is Born where she owns the whole film.

Claire: I would still love it if Colman won!

Jason: Again, a difficult one. I’d give this to Olivia Colman, but Glenn Close gives a fine study in frozen, spousal passivity. This is her seventh Oscar nomination, with no wins and she has just nabbed the Golden Globe for Best Actress. I think she could nab Oscar this time.

Best Actor in a Supporting Role

Mahershala Ali – Green Book
Adam Driver – BlackKklansman
Sam Elliott – A Star Is Born
Richard E. Grant – Can You Ever Forgive Me?
Sam Rockwell – Vice

Should win: Mahershala Ali (Nadine, Jason), Richard E. Grant (Claire)
Will win: Mahershala Ali (Nadine, Jason, Claire)

Nadine: Whether it’s an emotional moment or he’s serving looks, Mahershala Ali steals every scene in Green Book and continues to prove on numerous occasions that he is one of Hollywood’s best current actors.

Jason: I agree with Nadine here that Ali’s nomination in the supporting actor category is a bizarre choice, but Oscar has nomination selection criteria and rules so, to them, this is probably quite logical. It’s the best performance of all the nominees, rich and smooth.

Best Actress in a Supporting Role

Amy Adams – Vice
Marina de Tavirar – Roma
Regina King – If Beale Street Could Talk
Emma Stone – The Favourite
Rachel Weisz – The Favourite

Should win: Amy Adams/Rachel Weisz (Nadine, Jason, Claire)
Will win: Regina King (Nadine, Jason, Claire)

Nadine: I am carrying a deep rage about the fact Amy Adams is still Oscar-less. The woman deserves one for crying out loud! But my heart is saying Weisz because she’s devilishly charming and downright fabulous in The Favourite, I’m so pleased she won the BAFTA. Regina King’s performance is beautiful for every second she’s on screen in Beale Street, but it’s a tiny role compared to Weisz’s role in The Favourite.

Jason: Like Nadine, I’d prefer either Adams or Weisz (probably Weisz, seeing as she scooped the BAFTA) to win, but Weisz features in a British film which could discount her at an American movie awards and Adams is in a film that is too Republican slanted. And King has just won the Golden Globe. I think she might just nudge it.

Best Writing (Adapted Screenplay)

The Ballad of Buster Scruggs – Joel Coen, Ethan Coen.
BlackKklansman – Charlie Wachtel, David Rabinowitz, Kevin Willmott, Spike Lee
Can You Ever Forgive Me? – Nicole Holofcener and Jeff Whitty
If Beale Street Could Talk – Barry Jenkins
A Star Is Born – Eric Roth, Bradley Cooper, Will Fetters

Should win: If Beale Street Could Talk (Nadine), BlackKklansman (Jason), Can You Ever Forgive Me (Claire)
Will win: A Star Is Born (Nadine), Green Book (Jason), BlackKklansman (Claire)

Nadine: It feels like Barry Jenkins adapted James Baldwin’s novel into an epic love poem, If Beale Street Could Talk is that beautifully told. The blend of voice-overs and flashbacks to frame the narrative, along with the stunning cinematography, gives the novel an equally compelling vision to the fascinating original material. The root of the story is bleak and heart-breaking, but it is constantly presented as delicately optimistic which pays off. The film should be in more categories at the end of the day.

Jason: The Golden Globes don’t differentiate between adapted and original screenplays, so I only have their slimmer definition of cinematic writing excellence to go on. Green Book, a good script about racial intolerance that scooped the ‘GG’, is nicer and less ‘spiky’ than the vastly more interesting BlackKklansman, will win. But I’d give this to Spike Lee et al if I had my way.

Best Writing (Original Screenplay)

The Favourite – Deborah Davis, Tony McNamara
First Reformed – Paul Schrader
Green Book – Nick Vallelonga, Brian Currie, Peter Farrelly
Roma – Alofonso Cuarón
Vice – Adam McKcay

Should win: Roma (Nadine), The Favourite (Jason, Claire)
Will win: Green Book (Nadine), Roma (Jason), The Favourite (Claire)

Nadine: Thinking Roma is a simple story is a huge mistake, it’s an emotional, beautiful, personal, intimate, gentle tale of a family in 1970s Mexico with a particular focus on a maid. Even when there’s no dialogue, the sounds and movement of Mexico tells a passionate story. There’s a reason Roma is nominated for so many awards. 

Jason: In my opinion Roma shouldn’t win any Oscar but I think the winning the writing award will crown this film’s ‘political’ credentials. For me though, The Favourite should win. It oozes class, wit, smart characters and a wickedly daring exposition. PLEASE Oscar, prove me wrong!

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